Washington, DC (March 11, 2025) – Index of Small Business Optimism NFIB It fell with 2.1 points in February at 100.7. This is the fourth consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98 and is 4.4 points below its latest peak of 105.1 in December. The uncertainty index increased four points to 104 – the second highest registered reading.
“The uncertainty is high and is growing in Main Street, and for many reasons,” he said NFIB economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Those owners of small businesses awaiting better business conditions in the next six months fell and the percentage of current period viewing as a good time to expand RA, but it remains much higher than it was in the fall. Inflation remains a major problem, ranked second after the main problem, quality of work.”
The main findings include:
- The net percentage of owners waiting for the economy to improve dropped ten points from January to a 37% net (seasonally adjusted).
- Twelve percent (seasonally arranged) of owners reported that it is a good time to expand their business, deducting five points from January. This is the biggest monthly landing since April 2020.
- Sixteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their only most important problem in operating their business, deducting two points from January and now just below the quality of work as the main issue. The last time this was low was in October 2021.
- The net percentage of owners raising average sales prices increased from 10 points from January to 32% net (seasonally adjusted). This is the biggest monthly growth since April 2021, and the third highest in the survey history. The percentage of owners lowering their prices is 10 points lower than it was a year ago.
- Seasonally regulated, an increase in 29% net plan prices in the next three months, with three points from January and the highest reading in 11 months.
- Work costs reported as the only most important problem for business owners increased three points to 12%, only one point under the highest survey reading of 13% reached in December 2021. The last time the costs ranked this was in February 2023.
- The frequency of positive profit trends reports was a 24% net negative (seasonally adjusted), up to one point from January.
- A net 2% of the owners reported that their last loan was more difficult to obtain than in previous efforts (below a point). The last time this reading was low was in February 2022.
- Twenty -four percent of all owners reported to borrow regularly, reducing three points from January and the lowest since May 2022.
This month, the NFIB presented a new question in the study to better understand how small business owners appreciated the overall health of their business. Eleven percent of the owners reported the health of their business as excellent, 55% reported it as good, 27% reported it right, and 6% reported badly.
As reported in the NFIB monthly job report, a seasonally regulated 38% of all small business owners reported openings that they could not meet in February, up to three points from January and the highest reading since August 2024. Of the 53% of the owners employed or attempted to hire in January, 89% reported tried to complete.
A seasonally arranged net 15% of the owners plans to create new jobs in the next three months, dropping three points from January.
The percentage of small business owners reporting quality of work as the only most important problem for business increased a point from January to 19%, overcoming inflation as the main issue. Work costs reported as the only most important problem for business owners increased three points in February to 12%, just one point under the highest 13% reading reached in December 2021.
Seasonally regulated, a 33% net reported that raising compensation, unchanged from January. An 18% net -regulated net plan to increase compensation in the next three months, subtracting two points from January.
Fifty -eight percent of the owners reported capital expenses in the last six months, unchanged from January. Of those who expended, 37% reported costs for new equipment, 30% earned vehicles and 13% improved or expanded facilities. Twelve percent spent money on new matches and furniture and 5% won new buildings or land for expansion. Nineteen percent (seasonally arranged) plan capital capital in the next six months, at one point from January.
A net negative 12% of all owners (seasonally arranged) reported higher nominal sales in the last three months, deducting two points from January. The net percentage of owners expecting higher volumes of real sales fell six points from January to a 14% net (seasonally adjusted). This is the second consecutive month the expectations of real sales dropped after post -election recession levels.
The net percentage of owners reporting inventory profits was unchanged from January to a 6%net negative, seasonally adjusted. Not seasonally adjusted, 8% reported stock increase and 19% reported decreases.
A 5% net negative (seasonally arranged) of owners viewed current inventory shares as “very low” in February, reducing four points from January. A 1% net negative (seasonally adjusted) of owners plans investment in inventory in the coming months, down a point from January.
The net percentage of owners raising average sales prices increased from 10 points to 32%net, seasonally regulated. Sixteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their only most important problem in operating their business, deducting two points from January and only under the quality of work as the main issue. The last time it was low was October 2021. Unexpected, 6% of owners reported lower average sales prices and 38% reported higher average prices. Price increases were more frequent in finance (53% higher, 10% lower), wholesale (47% higher, 0% lower), agriculture (45% higher, 12% lower) and retail (45% higher, 5% lower) sectors.
Seasonally regulated, an increase in 29% net plan prices, up to three points from January. The frequency of positive profit trends reports was a 24% net negative (seasonally adjusted), a worse point than in January. Among the owners reporting lower profits, 40% blamed the weakest sales, 13% cited the usual seasonal change, 11% cited labor costs and 9% blamed the cost of materials. For owners reporting higher profits, 52% credited sales volumes, 15% cited the usual seasonal change, and 13% cited higher sales prices.
A net 2% reported that their last loan was more difficult to obtain than in previous efforts. The last time this reading was low was in February 2022. Three percent of owners reported that funding and interest rates were their high business problem in February, unchanged from January. A 4% net reported paying a higher rate for their most recent loan.
The NFIB Research Center has collected small business trends data with quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey surveys are randomly withdrawn from NFIB membership. The report is issued on the second Tuesday of each month. This study was conducted in February 2025.